Wildfire hotspots and habitat value of vertebrate biodiversity: a spatio-temporal clustering approach in the Southern Zagros, Iran

Wildfire activity in the Southern Zagros, Iran, has increased in recent decades, posing potential risks to vertebrate biodiversity. This study evaluates the spatial overlap and exposure of biodiversity to recurrent wildfires using satellite data with 13,419 fire events from 2000 to 2023. 6,140 fire events were recorded between 2021 and 2023, nearly equaling the number documented from 2000 to 2020. Spatio-temporal clustering with SaTScan identified six fire clusters, largely coinciding with areas of high species richness. Species distribution modeling (MaxEnt) was applied to 108 vertebrate species to map habitat value and assess exposure. Fire-prone zones were concentrated at mid-elevations (1,000–2,500 m) with dense vegetation, and seasonal peaks occurred in spring and summer. Fire occurrence was positively associated with human infrastructure, including roads and settlements. Approximately 60% of the burned area fell within high-value ecological zones, encompassing the ranges of 29 Red Listed vertebrate species, of which 22 have potential distributions within the fire clusters. Limitations include the lack of pre- and post-fire species data, which suggests that the study focuses on exposure and spatial overlap. These findings highlight the importance of targeted fire management and conservation planning in biodiversity-rich, high-risk regions of the Southern Zagros. • Multi-temporal remote-sensing data (2000–2023) were used to map wildfire distribution and extract fire occurrence metrics across the southern Zagros. • Space–time scan statistics identified statistically significant fire clusters, revealing non-random spatial patterns. • MaxEnt species distribution models generated vertebrate richness maps, serving as a basis for assessing biodiversity value. • Overlaying fire clusters with richness classes identified biodiversity priority zones with high exposure to wildfire occurrence. • A habitat value classification integrating fire impact and species richness was developed to inform targeted conservation planning.