Climate vulnerability and adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers in Jaintia Hills Region of Meghalaya, Northeast India

Smallholder farmers in the Northeast India are vulnerable to climate risks due to subsistence based rainfed farming, fragmented landholdings, fragile ecosystems, and limited institutional support. This study aimed to assess climate vulnerability among smallholder farmers in Jaintia Hills, Meghalaya, by examining adaptive capacity, identifying key socio economic and environmental drivers, and proposing resilience enhancing measures. The long term temperature and rainfall data from the Indian Meteorological Department and survey data from 300 farmers across twelve villages were used. Climate trends were examined over seven decades. Vulnerability was measured using an index that combines exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicators. The results showed a clear warming trend, with significant increases in both maximum (0.0094°C/year) and minimum (0.0081°C/year) temperatures during the monsoon and post monsoon seasons. Rainfall trends were not statistically significant but showed high variability. Farmers reported rising temperatures, frequent droughts, and declining crop yields, which closely matched observed climate patterns. The mean vulnerability index value was 0.667, indicating high overall vulnerability. About 44% of farmers were classified as highly vulnerable and 20.3% as very highly vulnerable. Adaptive capacity was the weakest component, reflecting limited access to credit, irrigation, training, and insurance. Rising temperatures were found to affect rice, maize, and key horticultural and spice crops through heat and soil moisture stress. Small land size, low literacy levels, and gender related inequalities further increased vulnerability. Strengthening education, water management, climate resilient farming practices, and institutional support can help in improving long term resilience in hill based farming systems. • Farmers face high climate vulnerability with warming and erratic rainfall. • Heat and moisture stress reduce yields of rice, maize, and key cash crops. • Limited land, irrigation, credit, and training weaken adaptive capacity. • Climate resilience needs better education, water management, and support. • Linking farmer perceptions with data improves climate vulnerability assessment.