Why the Philippines reversed its mother-tongue instruction policy: Tracing the erosion of political priority for first language-based education in the Philippines

Using qualitative process tracing, the study applies an adapted version of Shiffman’s framework on the generation of political priority to analyze the factors shaping the Philippines’ national Mother Tongue-Based Multilingual Education (MTB-MLE) policy and its political trajectory. Data sources include policy documents, legislative records, media coverage, and data from a systems-thinking workshop with national stakeholders. Findings identify several interrelated causes for the decline in political priority: persistent implementation difficulties, weak actor power, fragmented framing, leadership transitions, lack of clear proofs of concept, and the rising appeal of early English immersion as a competing policy priority. Although the policy was legally codified and internationally supported, these factors were insufficient to sustain political commitment amidst implementation challenges and a shifting political context. The study’s methodological contributions include its application of process tracing to language policy research and offers critical insights into the political dynamics that can weaken political support for an evidence-based language-in-education policy. It highlights the need for strong implementation, rigorous evaluation, and sustained coalitions to preserve promising policies and advance language equity in multilingual systems. • Introduces a novel, theory-driven causal analysis of MTB-MLE’s policy reversal. • Legal codification proved insufficient to protect MTB-MLE from legal overturn. • Weak implementation and scarce evidence cast doubt on policy viability. • Presidential shifts and economic appeals of English altered priorities. • Weak coalition strength and framing failures hindered support.