Burden of Lip, Oral Cavity, and Pharyngeal Cancers in China: Estimated in 2022 and Projections to 2050.

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS: Lip, oral cavity, and pharyngeal (LOCP) cancers comprise a heterogeneous group of malignancies with a substantial and evolving disease burden in China. This study aimed to systematically evaluate the burden of LOCP cancers in China and to project future trends. METHODS: Estimates from the GLOBOCAN database were used to quantify the incidence, mortality, and prevalence of LOCP cancers in China in 2022. Future trends were projected through 2050. Subsite-specific analyses were conducted to assess epidemiologic variations and temporal dynamics across different anatomic locations. RESULTS: In 2022, an estimated 116,142 new LOCP cancer cases occurred in China, with a pronounced male predominance. Nasopharyngeal cancer and lip and oral cavity cancer were the major contributors, accounting for 43.9% and 32.0% of cases, respectively, whereas oropharyngeal cancer remained relatively uncommon. Projections indicate a sustained increase in both incidence and mortality across all LOCP cancers through 2050. Notably, lip and oral cavity cancer is expected to show the most pronounced growth, with a potential shift towards becoming a leading contributor, particularly among females. CONCLUSIONS: LOCP cancers impose a substantial and growing burden in China, characterised by marked subsite heterogeneity and evolving epidemiologic trends. These findings highlight the necessity for subsite-specific prevention, early detection, and targeted intervention strategies, as well as the importance of strengthening precision-oriented cancer control frameworks to mitigate future disease burden. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: These findings provide critical evidence to inform national cancer control strategies and advance the paradigm shift towards precision public health and proactive, anticipatory cancer prevention strategies. The observed subsite heterogeneity, coupled with projected increases in lip and oral cavity cancer incidence, underscores the urgent need for more precise, anatomically targeted prevention and early detection frameworks.