Probabilistic approach for static carbon storage capacity estimation: A case study on the VR014 depleted gas field in offshore Louisiana, USA

Depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs offer a technically viable and cost-effective solution for long-term geological carbon storage (GCS), particularly in offshore settings where infrastructure and subsurface data are well established. This study assesses the CO 2 storage potential of the VR014 Field, a depleted gas reservoir located offshore Louisiana in the Gulf of Mexico, by developing a static petrophysical model reflecting the field’s depleted conditions. The workflow integrates 3D geostatistical modeling techniques to characterize five gas-bearing sandstone intervals. Three-dimensional spatial variations of petrophysical parameters were analyzed to assess reservoir heterogeneity and depleted static conditions, to inform volumetric storage estimation using a probabilistic approach. Storage capacity, as determined by a probabilistic Monte Carlo analysis, yields a total CO 2 storage capacity ranging from 56.1 million tonnes (Mt; P90) to 221.6 Mt (P10), with a P50 estimate of 115.4 Mt. The CRISI2 and BIG2_1C intervals account for the largest share of this capacity, driven by their superior reservoir quality, favorable structural positioning, and depleted volumes. Sealing integrity is supported by regionally continuous low-permeability shale units and fault transmissibility analysis, which confirms predominantly sealing behavior. The existing pressure depletion allows a wide operational injection window while maintaining safety margins below fracture thresholds. These findings demonstrate that VR014 Field offers favorable low-risk conditions for secure and efficient CO 2 sequestration. The integrated static modeling framework developed in this study provides a scalable and transferable methodology for the accelerated evaluation of CO 2 storage potential in other depleted gas fields across the Gulf of Mexico, thereby contributing to the advancement of basin-wide screening, site selection, and pre-injection certification strategies for offshore CO 2 storage deployment.