Building industry in 2040: An explorative scenario analysis of alternative sustainability pathways

The building industry is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in Europe and, with low productivity growth and fragmentation, has failed to create sufficient affordable, livable and sustainable housing. The EU Green Deal, digitalization, circularity, labor shortages, and industrialization are among the key forces expected to reshape the industry in the coming decades. How this change will unfold is uncertain and will also depend on the decisions and action from industry and the public sector. This study employes a strategic foresight methodology that includes a comprehensive horizon scan, systems analysis, scenario planning and industry expert engagement to identify alternative development trajectories for the building sector. Strategic foresight analysis forms the bedrock of our research. The study leverages a foresight program to engage a group of 30 experts in the development of four plausible future scenarios. In each scenario, we identify a distinct set of challenges and opportunities for the different actors in the Architecture, Engineering, and Construction industry. The conclusions are a product of the analytic foresight process and three rounds of expert contributions and validations. We further highlight policy implications, offering insights for industry actors to collaborate to create an industry that is more productive, digital, and circular. The paper concludes by identifying key areas for future research, fostering an ongoing dialogue on the AEC industry's future, and paving the way for further scholarly exploration. Our work serves to identify key innovation fields within the AEC industry, inform policy, and support the journey towards a sustainable future for the built environment.