Provenance without effect? Climate–growth relationships and drought tolerance in a Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) provenance trial in northeastern Germany

Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris L.) is a dominant tree species in the northeastern German lowlands. Although traditionally considered drought-tolerant, recent droughts have raised concerns about its future suitability under climate change. Provenance trials offer an opportunity to identify intraspecific differences in climate sensitivity and to select suitable provenances for assisted migration. We investigated climate–growth relationships and growth responses to drought of 15 provenances from Central and Eastern Europe using a 1975-established provenance trial. We analyzed climate–growth relationships over two periods to identify main growth drivers and their temporal stability. Drought tolerance was assessed through resilience indices for the most severe summer drought years. Linear regression models were used to explore relationships between climatic moisture deficit (CMD) of provenance origin and both climate–growth relationships and resilience indices. The strengthening influence of late‑winter and early‑spring temperatures on growth coincided with a declining positive effect of summer temperatures, whereas summer water availability showed a largely stable influence over time. We found no significant differences in drought tolerance among provenances and no clear trends along the CMD gradient. These findings apply to the climatic range represented in this provenance trial and the specific conditions at the trial site. They highlight that provenance selection for northeastern Germany should prioritize regions with drought characteristics similar to those projected for the area, rather than focusing solely on the general aridity of the provenance’s origin. While provenances from Southern Europe may hold promise, challenges such as low growth performance and limited genetic diversity remain.