Fine-scale post-fire forest recovery patterns and compound drivers in Taiwan’s high-mountain national parks

Global climate change has substantially altered forest fire regimes, with important implications for the dynamic stability of forest ecosystems. Understanding post-fire recovery patterns is critical for assessing ecosystem resilience and informing effective conservation management. However, post-fire recovery varies widely, reflecting complex interactions among multiple environmental factors and being further influenced by secondary disturbances and human restoration efforts. To address this, we analyzed historical burned area from 1987 to 2023 in Taiwan’s high-mountain national parks, using the differenced normalized burn ratio (dNBR) derived from Landsat spectral reflectance to characterize post-fire spectral responses, including the pattern of recovery status and recovery time. We also employed the random forest model and SHAP analysis to assess how environmental factors and secondary disturbances influenced both recovery status and recovery time, identifying key drivers of post-fire regeneration. Approximately 60 % of the burned grids recovered by 2023, although some have shown no spectral recovery after thirty-two years. The average recovery time was 13.9 ± 8.5 years for forest vegetation and 11.9 ± 9.6 years for non-forest vegetation. Random forest modeling supported the influence of fire-related and environmental factors on post-fire recovery. Our findings indicate that high-mountain forest ecosystems are particularly vulnerable, and severe wildfires can likely trigger secondary disturbances such as landslides and soil erosion, significantly prolonging the post-fire recovery time. The limited impact of reforestation efforts highlights the need to strengthen proactive prevention strategies and management mechanisms to effectively reduce ecological losses and resource costs, thereby protecting these vulnerable humid high-mountain ecosystems. • We analyzed post-fire forest recovery time and its key drivers in national parks. • While delayed mortality is common, secondary disturbances are the key recovery driver. • Mean recovery time is 14 years, and approximately 60 % of burned areas recovered. • Artificial reforestation has limited success in steep, inaccessible terrain. • Fire prevention is more effective than restoration in humid mountainous region.