Yang Ding, Yingqun Feng, Bo WANG
Understanding the drivers of regeneration failure is essential for conserving endangered plant species. Traditional conservation often overlooks individual variation within populations, potentially masking critical determinants of recruitment success. Here, we investigated the role of maternal reproductive variation in shaping regeneration potential in Pinus dabeshanensis , a critically endangered conifer endemic to central China. We focused on the seed-to-dispersal phase of regeneration, quantifying individual “regeneration contribution” as the product of successful dispersal rate and total mature seed production. Through three years of intensive monitoring of 88 P. dabeshanensis adult trees, we documented extreme inter-individual variation in reproductive output: 55 trees (62.5%) failed to produce any seeds during the three-year study period, while among the 33 reproductive individuals, seed production varied over 300-fold (38–11,195 seeds per tree), abortion rates ranged from 30% to 87%, and mature seed output differed by 1,000-fold (5–5,029 seeds). Remarkably, just six trees (7% of the population) contributed over 70% of all mature seeds. Using standardized ex situ seed dispersal experiments, we further examined how this variation influenced seed fate among the five most productive trees. Critically, these trees disproportionately influenced potential recruitment: the top producer contributed 113 successfully dispersed seeds, compared to only 44 and 45 from lower-yielding individuals. Our findings demonstrate that extreme reproductive skew among maternal trees, rather than population-wide seed predation or dispersal limitation, drives regeneration potential in this endangered species. This study establishes an individual-based framework for precision conservation, advocating for targeted management of high-yielding “dominant mother” trees to optimize resource allocation and enhance recovery of P. dabeshanensis and other endangered plants facing similar recruitment challenges.