New energy demonstration city policy and urban energy system resilience: Evidence from China

As climate-induced disruptions and energy security risks intensify, enhancing the resilience of energy systems has become a critical priority for sustainable urban development. This study investigates the impact of China's New Energy Demonstration City (NEDC) policy on urban energy system resilience (ESR) using panel data from 280 Chinese cities over the period 2010–2022. We construct a multidimensional resilience index encompassing robustness, restorability, and adaptability, and apply a Double Machine Learning (DML) framework to address endogeneity and high-dimensional control variables. The findings indicate that: (1) The NEDC policy significantly improves urban ESR, with robust results from various tests. (2) The mediation effect reveals that green technological innovation, institutional guidance, and informatization level are vital influential channels. (3) Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the policy's effects are stronger in central and western cities, cities with higher administrative status, and those with better digital infrastructure. These findings suggest that policymakers should continue expanding pilot programs, strengthen support for green innovation and digital infrastructure, and design targeted instruments for resource-constrained regions to ensure the security and stability of the energy system.