Risk transmission and interconnectedness between Fintech and oil-exporting markets during global crises

This study explores the dynamic interconnectedness and risk spillovers between FinTech, technological innovation, and the stock markets of major oil-exporting economies, i.e. Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United States, Iraq, and Canada, during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war. Using a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) framework, we uncover how systemic linkages evolve across crises. Results show that during COVID-19, Canada, Russia, and Iraq acted as dominant shock transmitters, while the United States, Saudi Arabia, and technological innovation were net recipients, reflecting structural vulnerabilities tied to market depth, institutional strength, and reliance on resource revenues. In contrast, during the Russia–Ukraine war, Iraq remained a persistent transmitter, while the U.S., Russia, and Canada exhibited greater self-connectedness, signaling inward market adjustments. FinTech and technological innovation consistently absorbed volatility, highlighting their growing systemic relevance but also fragility under global uncertainty. The findings highlight shifting contagion channels, urging market participants to adjust hedging strategies and policymakers to strengthen macro prudential coordination for stability.