Is this drama called populism? A comparison of protagonists, allies, antagonists, and victims in the narratives of Polish and Hungarian energy experts

The European Union's (EU) energy transition (ET) agenda has driven profound socio-technical changes while intensifying political contestation. Poland and Hungary provide a revealing comparative perspective: both are post-communist member states characterized by prominent right-wing populist narratives, yet they differ in energy mixes and dependence on external suppliers. We used a dramaturgical heuristic inspired by Shakespeare's five-act structure to show how national contexts and geopolitical shocks- especially Russia's invasion of Ukraine - create turning points that redefine the roles of policy actors. Moreover, we apply the Narrative Policy Framework to compare Polish and Hungarian discourses on ET, as reflected in expert narratives. Our analysis provides a novel lens through which populist opposition to ET can be examined and understood. We conducted 40 in-depth interviews with e.g., policymakers, researchers and business representatives in Poland and Hungary. The interviews were coded through qualitative content analysis. Findings show that governments and the general public occupy contradictory positions: they facilitate the transition through commitments and demand-side measures while simultaneously constraining it due to electoral incentives and sensitivity to energy prices. The EU is consistently depicted as an ally of ET, while Russia appears both as an antagonist and an unintentional ally that catalyzes energy diversification. Victim categories differ, with narrower Polish accounts and broader Hungarian concerns about vulnerable groups. Our study suggests that opposition to ET contains populist elements, but the broader configuration of motives and choices concerning ET is best characterized as a mix of populism and realpolitik .