Modelling peak microbial pollution events caused by combined sewer overflows in a source-to-sea system.

Predicting peak microbial pollution events in downstream coastal bathing waters caused by combined sewer overflows (CSOs) is essential for protecting public health. In urban areas, wastewater effluents, CSOs, and surface runoff can contribute to elevated microorganism loads to downstream waters. These pressures are likely to be intensified by growing population density and more frequent heavy rainfalls due to climate change. This study developed a process-based model to simulate Escherichia coli (E. coli) emissions, transport, and fate from the initial sources to coastal beaches. A three-year retrospective simulation (2017-2019) shows that E. coli concentrations in CSO discharges varied widely across the catchment (4.6 - 7.3 (log10 CFU 100ml-1)). 99th percentile E. coli concentrations (4.0 (log10 CFU 100ml-1)) at the inland water outlet were dominated by local CSO emissions, whereas 90th percentile E. coli concentrations (3.6 (log10 CFU 100ml-1)) reflected cumulative upstream contributions from both CSO and effluent emissions. With the simulation accuracy of 89%, the model reliably reproduced the E. coli dynamics on the downstream beach and showed strong performance in representing peak concentrations based on Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function (CCDF) analysis. The process-based model enables quantitative tracking of source contributions and identification of pollution hotspots, providing support for mitigation measures. The study lays down a source-to-sea modelling framework for representing pollution transport across the aquatic continuum and provides a transferable tool for microbial pollution forecasting and climate adaptation planning.