EU ambition vs. implementation: Performance toward nutrient loss reduction under the European Green Deal

This research assessed the capacity of 27 Member States of the European Union (EU) to achieve the European Green Deal target of reducing nutrient losses by 50 % by 2030 while maintaining soil fertility. In view of the persistently elevated concentrations of nitrates in groundwater and the uneven implementation of EU environmental policies at the national level, the research performed retrospective and forward-looking analyses. Two indicators have been used to assess the performance of EU Member States: (1) the proportion of groundwater monitoring stations with nitrate concentrations above 50 mg/l and (2) the result indicator R.22 (sustainable nutrient management) for the Strategic Plans (SP) under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The analysis was performed over two periods: the progress period (2016-2019 vs 2012-2015), showing historical changes, and the target period (2024-2027 vs 2016-2019), identifying necessary future changes to achieve the target. Methodologically, the research employed several techniques: calculation of an aggregated indicator using the zero unitarization method, a quartile approach to interpret the intensity of required progress, grouping, and comparison. The research results revealed that despite the continued application of the Nitrates Directive and the common EU policy framework, progress in reducing periodic pollution of groundwater with nitrates has not resulted in a common and sustained improvement at the EU level. The classification of Member States revealed significant differences in their performance, indicating fragmented, and national-context-dependent implementation of nutrient policies. The forward-looking performance assessment showed that performance deteriorated in most EU Member States over the target period, indicating that high policy objectives without consistent implementation and structural changes in farming practices are not enough to achieve the objectives of the European Green Deal (EGD). The analysis showed that only eight Member States would meet the target by 2030. This requires differentiated, performance-based policy planning tailored to country-specific circumstances and risk profiles.