Complex influencing factors and variants of societal energy demand – quantified explorative scenarios as a tool for strategic planning

This study explores the impact of societal change on energy service demand in the personal mobility sector, by integrating qualitative explorative scenarios with quantitative modeling. Traditional energy demand projections rely heavily on GDP and population growth, neglecting the influence of shifting social practices and behavioral patterns. Our approach applies a hybrid methodology combining Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) analysis with a newly developed Energy Service Demand Translation (ESDT) tool to quantify the effects of societal transformations on energy service demand in the mobility sector. As an outcome of the CIB analysis, two scenarios – ‘Freedom on wheels’ and ‘From a city of cars to a city of people’ are chosen to illustrate how contrasting social practices influence future energy demand using the ESDT tool. The first scenario, characterized by increased remote work and car-centered mobility, leads to higher energy service demand despite reduced commuting, as leisure and shopping trips increase. The second scenario, featuring urban restructuring and enhanced public transport infrastructure, results in lower overall energy service demand by reducing reliance on private vehicles and increasing active mobility options. Our findings highlight the necessity for adaptive energy policies that incorporate societal trends beyond GDP and population growth. Even if this paper considers two scenarios only, it demonstrates how scenarios created by using the CIB method in combination with the developed ESDT tool can support political strategic planning for infrastructure taking into account societal change. Future work could include further sectors to provide overall energy service demand estimations.