The role of subsidies in accelerating green hydrogen adoption in India: A model-based policy evaluation

India's commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2070 has positioned green hydrogen as a strategic instrument for industrial decarbonization, formalized through the National Green Hydrogen Mission (NGHM) of 2023. With the refinery and fertilizer sectors representing India's largest consumers of hydrogen, this study develops an integrated, bottom-up techno-economic modeling framework to assess green hydrogen adoption pathways by combining demand projections, supply-side cost trajectories, and policy interventions. A logit-based substitution model simulates market penetration under multiple techno-economic and policy scenarios, with a central focus on performance-linked production subsidies offered under the NGHM. Using real-world bid data, the analysis quantifies the impact of these incentives on demand acceleration, cost reduction, and infrastructure expansion. Under the Export-Led Growth and Technology Leap Scenario, green hydrogen demand rises from 0.01 Mt in 2025 to 12 Mt by 2050, achieving a 70 % market share. Subsidies increase 2030 demand by 60 %, enable the deployment of 75 GW of electrolyzers, and lower the levelized cost to $1.57/kg by 2070. The transition yields cumulative fossil fuel import savings of over $18 billion and emissions reductions exceeding 132 MtCO 2 , underscoring green hydrogen's dual potential for climate mitigation and energy security. The findings highlight the importance of well-calibrated fiscal instruments in accelerating industrial energy transitions. At the same time, the proposed framework offers a policy-relevant, replicable methodology with broader applicability to other emerging economies pursuing net-zero industrial pathways. • Evaluates the impact of subsidies under SIGHT scheme as part of the National Green Hydrogen Mission. • Develops a framework that links demand growth and learning-based cost reductions, with a logit-based technology choice model. • Applies the framework across various scenarios defined by economic, policy, and technological drivers. • Estimates show that GH 2 costs could decline to $1.60-1.90/kg, yielding import savings of $12-18 billion across scenarios. • Rapid deployment of electrolysers maximizes the scaling effect, driving significant reductions in green hydrogen costs.