Decentralized finance (literacy) today and in 2034: Initial insights from Singapore and beyond

How will Decentralized Finance transform financial services? Using New Institutional Economics and Dynamic Capabilities Theory, I analyse survey data from 109 experts using non-parametric methods. Experts span traditional finance, DeFi industry, and academia. Four insights emerge: adoption expectations rise from negligible to 43% expecting at least high adoption by 2034; experts expect convergence scenarios over disruption, with traditional finance embracing DeFi most likely; back-office transforms before customer-facing functions; strategic competencies eclipse DeFi-sector specific- and technical skills. Financial institutions should prioritize DeFi Literacy. DeFi represents emerging market entry requiring organizational transformation, not just technological implementation. Recent SEC developments are broadly consistent with expert expectations. • Expert consensus on DeFi adoption shifts from negligible today to 43% expecting at least high adoption by 2034 • Traditional finance embracing DeFi within regulatory frameworks emerges as the most likely future scenario • 86% of experts expect at least moderate or high impact of DeFi in the area of risk management • Strategic capabilities (84% of experts rate at least important) outweigh DeFi sector-specific- and technology/blockchain skills for adoption success • Expert survey with large expert contributor group based in Singapore reveals DeFi as emerging market requiring new organizational competencies