Solmaz Abbasi
The fast advancement of high-energy lithium-ion batteries demands a thorough and reliable method for choosing cathode materials that meet performance, safety, cost, and sustainability needs all at once. This research introduces a thorough framework for making multi-criteria decisions, which also accounts for uncertainty. Its purpose is to assess and rank lithium-ion battery cathodes, specifically concentrating on Ni-rich LiNixCoyMnzO₂ (NCM) types. The approach combines the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to assign weights to criteria and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to rank alternatives. It also enhances standard deterministic analysis by using Monte Carlo and fuzzy Monte Carlo simulations, which address uncertainty and subjectivity in expert opinions. Initially, a comparative assessment of commonly used lithium-ion battery cathodes is conducted, considering technical, economic, safety, and environmental factors. Following this, twelve NCM cathode samples, each with different Ni–Co–Mn proportions, are thoroughly examined for their energy density, specific capacity, cycle life, safety features, conductivity, cost-effectiveness, and environmental footprint. Probabilistic and fuzzy analyses serve to validate the strength of the resulting rankings. Across both deterministic and stochastic analyses, NCM95–2.5–2.5 consistently emerges as the optimal cathode material. This composition demonstrates an excellent balance between high energy density and overall performance, even with its inherent stability issues. In addition to ranking results, the suggested framework offers applicable, design-focused understanding for improving Ni-rich cathodes and aids in making knowledgeable material choices when facing uncertainty. This research provides a strong decision-support system for the intelligent design of advanced, high-energy lithium-ion batteries.