Drought propagation and recovery dynamics across hydroclimatic pathways: Predictors and timescale dependence in Chile

Study region Continental Chile, spanning a strong hydroclimatic gradient from hyper-arid northern regions to humid temperate southern catchments. Study focus Drought impacts depend not only on meteorological deficits, but also on how water deficits propagate through soil moisture, streamflow, and vegetation systems. This study investigates drought propagation and recovery across atmospheric, hydrological, and ecological systems along Chile’s hydroclimatic gradient. Standardised drought indices, event-based metrics, cross-correlation analysis, and machine-learning models were used to quantify propagation timing, probability, severity transformation, and recovery across multiple drought pathways and temporal windows. New hydrological insight for the region Drought propagation is pathway-dependent and spatially heterogeneous. Soil moisture was identified as a key intermediary associated with vegetation drought response, while hydrological pathways exhibited greater variability. Drought severity tended to be attenuated within hydrological systems but was often amplified in vegetation, and recovery commonly persisted beyond the duration of the initial water deficit. Propagation probability and recovery are reasonably explained by climatic and catchment attributes (R 2 up to 0.65 and 0.71, respectively), particularly aridity, latitude, and storage-related properties, whereas onset timing remains weakly predictable (R 2 < 0.30). Arid catchments tended to exhibit faster and more frequent propagation, while greater storage capacity was associated with reduced propagation and faster recovery. These findings highlight the importance of integrated, multi-system approaches for understanding drought dynamics in coupled hydro-ecological systems.