The anatomy of failed historical transitions: An approach to expand the study of socio-technical change

Transition research has yielded substantial insight regarding how large-scale changes in systems unfold but has paid comparatively little attention to failed transitions: historical episodes where efforts to adjust socio-technical systems did not result in systemic change. Despite calls to attend to these failures, analytical challenges continue to hold back engagement with this fertile empirical terrain. In response, this paper develops an approach that can help distinguish transition failures (sustained attempts at regime change that ultimately stagnate or reverse) from localized technological failures, niche setbacks, or mere curiosities. Engaging with the limited work on transition failure to date as well as foundational thinking in the field, we propose a framework based on three analytical tests: (1) whether there was a significant attempt at regime change, (2) whether the momentum for change was lost, and (3) whether the regime remained substantially unaltered. Our approach is illustrated through three historical cases drawn from transport and electricity, which span multiple forms of failure. Our findings suggest that rebalancing the empirical focus of the field to better reflect transition failure should enable scholars to strengthen core transition concepts, extend insights on socio-technical change, and inform practical governance strategies for navigating contemporary transitions.