Modelling in support of community-empowered energy transitions: Transforming a coal- and carbon-intensive region into a municipality of energy citizens

As coal- and carbon-intensive regions across Europe undergo structural transformation, ensuring that these energy transitions are just and inclusive requires policies that also address cultural, identity, inequality, and perceptual dimensions. This study evaluates whether the current national strategy in Greece risks locking the municipality of Megalopolis- an illustrative case of historical lignite dependence- into continued reliance on natural gas, thereby missing the opportunity for a fully green and inclusive transition by 2050. To do so, we combine transformative scenario design, informed by publicly available data and expert insights, with high-resolution demand-side management modelling. Three alternative transition pathways are simulated, reflecting varying levels of citizen engagement and policy ambition. Results show that a community-empowered transition based on early electrification, energy efficiency, and behavioural change can accelerate decarbonisation and reduce costs at both municipal and household levels, while aligning with the European Union’s climate objectives. Citizen participation emerges not only as a normative aspiration but as a practical lever for accelerating and democratising the energy transition. Supported by enabling policy frameworks and inclusive governance structures, stronger local engagement could guide post-carbon regions like Megalopolis toward more resilient and equitable energy futures.