Abandonment duration shapes reuse strategies and benefits of abandoned cropland in China

The reuse potential of abandoned cropland is significantly affected by the duration of abandonment. Ignoring such variation may lead to inefficient resource allocation. However, a systematic understanding of how abandonment duration shapes reuse strategies and associated multi-objective benefits remains limited. To address this gap, we excluded ecological restoration areas and identified the spatial distribution of abandoned cropland of varying durations across China. We then applied an interpretable machine learning model to distinguish between recultivation and afforestation pathways and quantified their potential benefits in terms of food production and carbon storage. The results are as follows: (1) The total abandoned cropland area reached 126 thousand km 2 , mainly located in China's second topographic step. Both abandonment area and recultivation probability decreased with longer abandonment duration, with 52.2 thousand km 2 abandoned for up to 10 years and 73.7 thousand km 2 for 11 to 33 years. (2) Abandoned cropland can be reused through two pathways: 70.2 thousand km 2 via recultivation and 34.5 thousand km 2 via afforestation. (3) Reusing abandoned cropland could yield 26.3 million tons of food, enough to feed 66 million people, and sequester 570 million tons of carbon, equivalent to 16.6 % of China's annual emissions. Recultivation of short-term abandonment offers higher production gains, as the per-area yield potential declines with increasing abandonment duration. This study emphasizes that abandonment duration should be taken into account when formulating land use policies for abandoned cropland reuse. The findings provide valuable insights for enhancing food security and supporting carbon neutrality goals.