E. Klagkou, Konstadia Lika
Bactrocera oleae is one of the most damaging insect pests in the Mediterranean countries and is currently expanding into other parts of the world. Its population dynamics are strongly affected by environmental factors, such as temperature, humidity, and quality of olive fruit. Pest management strategies used to control its populations, such as bait sprays and traps, may also affect non-target species. In the context of climate change, it is important to understand the effects of temperature on population dynamics and the effectiveness of current pest management strategies. To address this, a DEB-IBM model was developed to mechanistically link individual physiology with population dynamics and investigate the combined effects of temperature and bait spray applications. Simulations showed that population growth was strongly influenced by temperature, in both constant and time-varying conditions. Temperature increase enhanced population growth within an optimal thermal range but reduced it outside this range due to high mortality. The impact of extreme temperature events depended more on the timing and duration of thermal peak conditions than on daily temperature fluctuations. Sensitivity analysis identified temperature and insecticide-induced mortality as the factors with the strongest effects on imago abundance, with temperature showing large interaction effects. Host-tree carrying capacity was the next most influential factor, while bait-spray application frequency had a comparatively smaller effect on population dynamics. These findings suggest that climate warming may modify both the magnitude and timing of pest outbreaks, causing population peaks to shift relative to current control strategies and potentially reducing their effectiveness.