How land-use scenarios shape sustainability? An indicator-based analysis to identify leverage points

Ensuring sustainable land use through governance is challenging due to the complex and future-oriented nature of sustainability. We present a framework that combines land-use scenarios, sustainability indicators, and multivariate analysis to identify leverage points for policy decisions. We apply it to a multi-use protected area in Argentina's Andean Patagonian Forests. Six policy scenarios (conservation, informal tourism, formal tourism, livestock, forestry, and urban development) were scored using 38 sustainability indicators. Conservation performed higher (83%), and urban development was the least sustainable scenario (24%). Formal tourism scores closer to conservation (72%), whereas informal tourism aligns with urban development (32%). A subset of 15 indicators preserves the multivariate structure of the full assessment. Analysing the subset of indicators, we associated them with leverage points of the system for intervention, such as institutional capacity, accessibility and tourism. Overall, outcomes are not only shaped by land-use designation, indicating that sustainability is governance dependent rather than inherent to a given land use.