Couling coordination degree analysis and spatiotemporal heterogeneity between tourism economy and ecosystem service value in China

The interplay between tourism development and ecosystem services is pivotal to regional sustainable development, yet their spatiotemporal coupling dynamics and underlying mechanisms remain insufficiently explored at the national scale in China. While existing studies have examined relevant ecological-economic interactions, they often overlook the multi-dimensional characteristics of tourism activities and the comprehensive value of ecosystem services in their coupling analyses. This study quantifies tourism economy (TE) and ecosystem service value (ESV) across 31 Chinese provinces from 2006 to 2020, and explores their coupling coordination and influencing mechanisms. TE is measured using the entropy weight method that covers economic benefits, market scale, and industry scale; ESV is estimated using the equivalent factor method that incorporates multiple ecosystem functions. The coupling coordination degree (CCD) model is employed to assess their coordinated development, with exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) applied to identify spatial correlations and spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Key findings are as follows: (1) Quantitative analysis reveals that TE exhibited a fluctuating upward trend, with notable disparities between eastern and western China, while ESV increased steadily and formed a spatial pattern of higher in the west and lower in the east, showing distinct regional differences. (2) CCD analysis indicates that over the study period, CCD of TE-ESV increased from 0.37 (mild imbalance) to 0.46 (near imbalance), with its spatial distribution transitioning from peripheral high-value clusters to regional convergence. (3) ESDA research shows that no significant spatial autocorrelation was observed in the early study period, but the correlation increased markedly after 2011 and this reflects the increasingly prominent spillover effect of inter-provincial coordinated development. (4) GTWR analysis demonstrates that the factors influencing the impact of TE on ESV exhibit distinct spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Specifically, indicators related to tourism market scale, such as tourist volume, exert a negative impact on ESV, while indicators related to economic benefits and industry scale, such as per capita consumption and number of scenic spots, have a positive effect, with more significant impacts in western provinces. This study clarifies the spatiotemporal interactions between TE-ESV, providing a scientific basis for region-specific policies aimed at balancing tourism development and ecological protection. Additionally, the integrated analytical framework serves as a valuable tool for research on sustainable development. • Establishes a theoretical framework for the coupling coordination between tourism economy and ecosystem service value. • The coupling coordination degree exhibits significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity across provinces. • Tourism economic benefits and industrial scale positively impact ecosystem service value. • The coupling coordination degree is influenced by multiple factors.