Predicting potential suitable habitat distribution of three dominant tick species in Kazakhstan under climate and land-use change scenarios

• Distribution model for 3 Kazakhstan tick species built via ensemble modeling. • Land-use composition was assessed across suitability levels under various SSP scenarios and periods. • H. asiaticum and D. marginatus are climate beneficiaries while R.turanicus habitats contract. Accurate prediction of tick distribution is crucial for Kazakhstan, a livestock-dependent country. We utilized three dominant tick species ( Dermacentor marginatus , Hyalomma asiaticum , and Rhipicephalus turanicus ) occurrence data alongside environmental variables to construct ensemble species distribution models. Furthermore, land-use maps were overlaid under different periods and climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) to analyze land-use composition and its changes across suitability levels. Our main findings are as follows: (1) Key environmental variables influencing the three tick species were identified. For example, D. marginatus was most affected by precipitation seasonality and livestock density. (2) The suitable habitat of R. turanicus declined under all scenarios, whereas the areas of D. marginatus and H. asiaticum decreased under SSP1-2.6 but increased under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Interestingly, when the simulated potentially suitable habitats were overlaid with land use data, the following patterns were observed: (1) Dermacentor marginatus primarily occurred south of 51°N, dominated by grasslands and barren lands. In the future, barren lands, grasslands, and croplands will expand in low-suitability habitats, grasslands and forests will increase in moderate-suitability habitats, while the area of grasslands and barren lands will decrease in high-suitability habitats. (2) Hyalomma asiaticum was concentrated south of 48°N, and barren lands and forests were the main contributors. Projections showed forests and barren lands shrinking in high-suitability habitats, grasslands and forests expanding in moderate-suitability habitats, and barren lands and grasslands increasing in low-suitability habitats. (3) Rhipicephalus turanicus was primarily concentrated south of 46.5°N, dominated by croplands and barren lands. Future projections showed near-complete loss of high-suitability habitats. Moderate-suitability habitats are projected to contract universally, except for a slight increase in urban areas. Under SSP1-2.6, forests and barren lands will decline in low-suitability habitats, while under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, croplands and grasslands expand. This study supports regional control and early warning systems for ticks and tick-borne diseases.