Dynamic multi-criteria analysis of water resources carrying capacity under anthropogenic pressure

• Multi-method framework (AHP–Entropy–CRITIC–game theory) ensured balanced WRCC weighting. • WRCC (2012–2021) showed mostly critical, overloaded states under hydro-anthropic stress. • Upstream allocation, inflow quality, and supply–demand balance were key WRCC drivers. • ARIMA performed well for socio-economic data, but water quality needs hybrid modeling. • Integrated strategies sustain long-term ecological and socio-economic balance in the region. Water resources underpin ecological sustainability, human well-being, and socio-economic development, yet their sustainable management remains a global challenge. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of the Water Resources Carrying Capacity (WRCC) of the Anzali Wetland in northern Iran, integrating system dynamics modelling, multi-method indicator weighting, cloud-based evaluation, obstacle factor analysis, and ARIMA forecasting. Eleven key indicators, reflecting hydrological, socio-economic, and environmental drivers, were selected through expert consultation. Their relative importance was quantified by combining Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Entropy, and CRITIC methods, and optimized via game-theoretic integration to ensure a balanced and objective weighting framework. WRCC evaluation for 2012–2021 using the cloud model revealed persistent critical and overloaded states, with transient improvements in certain years and noticeable effects from the COVID-19 pandemic. Obstacle factor analysis identified upstream water allocation, urban population growth, and agricultural water use efficiency as the dominant constraints. ARIMA-based forecasts for 2022–2031, coupled with scenario analysis, demonstrated that integrated management, combining wetland expansion, improved inflow water quality, and enhanced irrigation efficiency, offers the most robust pathway for long-term WRCC sustainability. These findings provide a replicable methodological framework and actionable insights for wetland conservation and water resource management under complex socio-ecological pressures.