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◆ Dendrochronologia2025-10-12· Proxy (statistics)

Pan-alpine summer temperatures since 742 CE

Jan Esper, Frederick Reinig, Max C. A. Torbenson, Edurne Martínez del Castillo, Marcel Kunz, Alberto Arzac, Marco Carrer, Feng Chen, Alper Kaan Kadioglu, Alexander V. Kirdyanov, Ernesto Tejedor, Mirek Trnka, Ulf Büntgen

原始摘要(英文原文)· Original abstract
Albeit labor-intensive, tree-ring maximum latewood density (MXD) has become a prime proxy to reconstruct inter-annual to multi-centennial climate variability. We here combine such data from five valleys in Austria, France and Switzerland to present a June-September temperature history for the European Alps reaching back to 742 CE. The pan-alpine record correlates at r 1880-2023 = 0.89 with observational data and provides evidence for a prolonged Little Ice Age (LIA) from the 1250 s to 1850s CE, during which summer temperatures were 0.59°C cooler compared to the preceding Medieval Warm Period (MWP) from the 880 s to 1240 s CE. Temperatures rose by 3.65°C from the coldest decade in the 1810s, which includes the 1816 CE post-Tambora “year without a summer”, to the warmest decade in the 2010s. The warmest summer in our reconstruction occurred in 2003 CE (+2.71°C) and exceeds the warmest naturally forced summer in 970 CE (+2.19°C) by more than 0.5°C. This difference is non-significant, however, if we consider the increasing uncertainties back in time when fewer sites and trees contributed to the reconstruction. The pan-alpine record is the result of conducting MXD measurements over the past two decades in Swiss and German laboratories and sets a new standard in terms of explained variance and pre-instrumental temperature variability estimation in the European Alps.
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Pan-alpine summer temperatures since 742 CE — 科研速览 Science Skim