Assessing environmental and policy influences on bike-sharing: Evidence from Trondheim, Norway

Bike-sharing systems (BSS) play a vital role in sustainable urban mobility, yet their effectiveness in cities with hilly terrain and cold climates remains underexplored. This study examines the evolution of bike-sharing ridership in Trondheim, Norway, between 2019 and 2024, assessing the impact of topography, climate, and policy interventions. Using an enriched dataset integrating elevation, weather, transport accessibility, and land use characteristics, the study applies Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression with year-variable interaction terms to evaluate changing ridership determinants, alongside spatial change detection mapping to identify shifting demand patterns. The results indicate that while steep slopes and adverse weather remain key constraints, their negative effects have diminished over time. Spatial analysis also highlights growing demand in university and northwest districts, while highelevation residential areas continue to experience declining ridership. The findings indicate the need for targeted interventions, such as electric bike integration, optimised station placement, improved cycling infrastructure, and enhanced winter maintenance. These strategies could potentially mitigate environmental barriers and support the long-term viability of bike-sharing in hilly, cold-weather cities.