The asymmetric impact of geopolitical risk on maritime trade: empirical evidence from the Russo-Ukrainian tensions

The war between Russia and Ukraine is an extreme geopolitical event with far-reaching consequences. Disruptions in supply chains generated ripple effects across multiple shipping sectors, notably the dry bulk, tanker, and container markets. In parallel, heightened geopolitical risk (GPR) in the Black Sea region affected port operations and reshaped critical trade corridors. Despite extensive theoretical discussion, the literature lacks a comprehensive quantitative analysis of GPR’s impact on the port sector. This study addresses this gap by investigating the causal relationship between GPR and port calls in Ukrainian and Russian ports. Using Toda–Yamamoto causality tests, impulse response analysis, and forecast error variance decomposition based on a Quantile Vector Autoregression model applied to monthly data from January 2019 to September 2024, this relationship was confirmed, and the analysis highlighted the asymmetric impact across sectors. The results indicated an adverse long-term influence of GPR in conflict zones, with spillover effects on distant ports and corridors. These findings provide potentially valuable insights for supply chain actors operating under geopolitical uncertainty.