Childhood maltreatment and adolescent withdrawn behavior: Evidence from a multiverse analysis and a longitudinal moderated mediation model.

BACKGROUND: Childhood maltreatment (CM) is a major developmental risk factor for adolescent withdrawn behavior, yet empirical estimates vary substantially, and the mechanisms underlying this association remain insufficiently tested. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to examine the robustness of the association between CM and withdrawn behavior using a multiverse approach and to test a longitudinal moderated mediation model with psychological resilience as a mediator and friendship quality as a moderator. PARTICIPANTS: Data were drawn from adolescents in Hebei Province, China. Study 1 included 1976 participants. Study 2 followed 1639 adolescents from the same cohort over approximately seven months. METHODS: Study 1 employed a multiverse analysis incorporating 80 plausible analytic specifications to assess the stability of the association between CM and withdrawn behavior. Study 2 used a longitudinal moderated mediation model to test the mediating role of psychological resilience and the moderating role of friendship quality. RESULTS: In Study 1, CM was associated with higher levels of withdrawn behavior across all 80 analytic specifications (median β = 0.17; NSRPD = 80/80; p < .001). In Study 2, CM was related to lower psychological resilience (β = -0.07, p = .006), which in turn was related to higher subsequent withdrawn behavior (β = -0.22, p < .001). Friendship quality significantly strengthened the negative association between psychological resilience and withdrawn behavior (β = -0.05, p = .049). CONCLUSIONS: The association between CM and adolescent withdrawn behavior was robust across analytic specifications. Psychological resilience mediated this association, and friendship quality strengthened the protective effect of psychological resilience.