Understanding the decline in foster care entries in the United States.

Since 2016, foster care entries declined by over 35%. This amounts to a net difference of 444,000 fewer children who entered foster care over this period. Despite the profound ramifications of this decline in terms of the health and well-being of children and families, this topic remains largely unexplored. In this discussion article, we investigate two questions foundational to understanding the decline: 1) Is the decline concentrated among certain populations, and 2) can it be explained? In 1), we examine if and how states have differentially driven the decline and how the national composition of entries has changed by age, race/ethnicity, urbanicity, and prior maltreatment. In 2), we consider multiple potential explanations for declining foster care entries, including the role of the Family First Prevention Services Act, the use of kinship diversion, and reductions in child harm or risk of harm. We present available data that does or does not support each explanation and discuss each in some detail. In short, we do not find the decline is substantially concentrated within any one population (e.g. age, race/ethnicity, state politics), and is instead experienced broadly. At this time, we find no strong evidence for any single explanation.