Disability and perceived social exclusion in later working age in Germany – what role does employment play? A counterfactual mediation analysis

BACKGROUND: There is strong evidence that persons with disabilities are at greater risk of social exclusion in various areas of life. However, the role of employment for perceived social exclusion (PSE) among persons with disabilities has not yet been sufficiently researched. OBJECTIVE: This study addresses this gap by analyzing the mediating role of employment on the relationship between disabilities and PSE in women and men of later working age (40-64 yrs.). METHODS: We used a pooled data set from the 2014-2023 survey waves with 11,680 observations from the German Ageing Study (DEAS), a nationally representative longitudinal study of Germans over the age of 40. The Global Activity Limitation Indicator (GALI) was used as a measure of disability. PSE was measured with a scale developed by Bude and Lantermann covering four statements such as "I feel like I do not really belong to society". We performed logistic regression analyses and counterfactual-based causal mediation analyses. RESULTS: For men with severe disabilities, employment accounted for almost half of the difference in PSE between individuals with and without severe disabilities. For women with severe disabilities, the effect of employment was less pronounced, accounting for 15.0% of the difference. While employment rates increased between 2014 and 2023 regardless of disability status, the employment-gap between persons with and without disabilities persisted. CONCLUSIONS: The inclusion of individuals with disabilities into the labor market while promoting self-determined work remains an important social policy goal in Germany.