Ali Jamali Rovesht, Mehdi Shafieefar, Hassan Akbari, Pouya Zarbipour
Berm recession is a critical factor in the design and reliability assessment of rubble-mound berm breakwaters. However, the variability among empirical formulas introduces significant uncertainty in predicting structural performance. This study investigates how the selection of berm recession formulas influences the failure probability of berm breakwaters, using the Tombak Port structure as a case study. Failure probabilities were estimated using four probabilistic methods: Monte Carlo Simulation, First- and Second-Order Reliability Methods, and Importance Sampling. Correlations among wave height, wave period, and water level were explicitly modeled using a D-vine copula, addressing the independence assumption commonly adopted in previous studies. The results indicate that certain empirical formulas underestimate failure risk, while others provide more conservative predictions. Neglecting environmental correlations leads to underestimation of failure probability in statically stable conditions and overestimation in dynamically stable conditions. Sensitivity analysis highlights wave height as the dominant load parameter and armor stone density as the main resistance parameter. The developed framework and flowchart support more informed formula selection and improved design reliability for berm breakwaters.