Future time perspective and vaping initiation among adults who smoke: Findings from the 2020 and 2022 ITC four country smoking and vaping surveys.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Higher future time perspective (FTP), or how much individuals consider the long-term outcomes of their present actions, is associated with more attempts to quit smoking. Nicotine vaping products are less harmful than smoking and may aid cessation, but perceptions about their harm relative to smoking vary. This study examined whether FTP predicts vaping initiation (ever tried vaping), among adults who smoke, and whether this relationship depends on perceived harm. METHOD: Data were drawn from the 2020 and 2022 International Tobacco Control Four Country Smoking and Vaping Surveys. The sample included 853 adults aged 18 years or older who smoked, had never vaped at baseline, and provided outcome data at follow-up. Binary logistic regression examined whether FTP predicted vaping initiation and any moderating role of perceived harm (less versus equally or more harmful than smoking). Multinomial logistic regression examined whether FTP predicted current (versus past or never) vaping at follow-up. RESULTS: Higher FTP significantly increased odds of vaping initiation among older adults, especially those over 55 (OR = 3.93, 95 % CI [1.39, 11.13], p = 0.01). Perceived harm was not a significant moderator but, independently, those perceiving vaping as less harmful than smoking were more likely to initiate vaping (OR = 2.12, 95 % CI [1.40, 3.21], p < 0.001). Those who changed to believing it was less harmful by follow-up were the most likely to be currently vaping at follow-up (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Among adults who smoke, those older in age with higher FTP and all who perceived vaping as less harmful than smoking, were more likely to initiate vaping.