The relationship between judgment-of-learning resolution and the contribution of item-level processing experience versus global prior beliefs.

Previous studies on judgments of learning (JOLs) have primarily focused on how individuals integrate multiple cues to predict subsequent memory performance through experience-based and belief-based processes. However, few studies have examined the relative contributions of global prior beliefs about one's overall memory ability versus item-level processing experiences during JOL formation, possibly due to the absence of formal computational models that can characterize how these two sources of information are integrated. To address this issue, the Bayesian inference model for metamemory (BIM) introduced the parameter Pexp to quantify the reliance on item-level processing experience relative to global prior beliefs in forming JOLs. This study aimed to investigate whether the contribution of item-level processing experience versus global prior beliefs to JOLs (Pexp) is related to JOL resolution, defined as the accuracy in distinguishing between correctly and incorrectly remembered items. Experiments 1 and 2 employed longitudinal designs in which participants completed memory tasks twice, separated by either a one-month or a one-week interval. The results demonstrated individual consistency in Pexp over time, as well as a bidirectional relationship between Pexp and JOL resolution. Experiment 3 and a re-analysis of a previous meta-analytic dataset further revealed that the association between Pexp and JOL resolution persisted even in the presence of metamemory illusion, and was observed across datasets involving different material types and task formats. These findings highlight the complex interplay between JOL resolution and the process underlying JOL formation, and providing new insights into the cognitive mechanisms of metamemory.