Divergent trajectories of global fires: Overall decline, regional intensification

Fires profoundly influence the climate system and human societies, yet their global dynamics remain insufficiently resolved, which could limit global fire risk assessment and mitigation. Using satellite-based fire products from 2003 to 2023, this study shows that global fire numbers, intensity, and burned area declined overall ( p < 0.05), driven mainly by reductions in savanna, grassland and shrubland fires in the low- to mid-latitudes of both hemispheres. In contrast, pronounced regional surges emerged. Fire-derived CO 2 and PM 2.5 emissions slightly decreased and increased by −24.41 Tg per year and 0.16 Tg per year, respectively. This was largely because of intensified boreal forest fire emissions in the circum-Arctic offsetting declines in lower-latitude savanna, grassland, and shrubland fire emissions, particularly during June–August. Hotspots of increasing fire activity were observed in northern North America, northeastern Eurasia, and central Africa, primarily linked to warmer climate, whereas those in South Asia and China were driven by intensified agricultural burning. Fire activity declined in southeastern South America, parts of Africa, and southeastern Asia because of the combined effects of drier conditions, fuel availability, and intensified human activities, whereas the declines in northwestern Eurasia were primarily due to reduced agricultural burning. Together, these findings highlight a dual trajectory: a sustained global decline in fire activity alongside accelerating regional increases. This duality underscores the importance of regionally differentiated fire management and climate adaptation strategies in a warming world.