Correlates of Subnational Polyarchy: Evidence from Contemporary Brazil

Abstract Amidst the global trend of autocratization, it is important to understand how and why polyarchy varies inside countries that remain nominally democratic at the national level. Leveraging original data covering all 27 states of contemporary Brazil (1986–2022), we assess six hypotheses drawn from democratization and subnational regime studies. Against expectations of democratic convergence, four decades of national democratic rule have not flattened subnational disparities. We identify persistent differences between states, and suggest that the correlates of cross-state variation within a federal democracy are not dissimilar to those characterizing cross-national regime differences worldwide. Within Brazil, the territorial unevenness of polyarchy is associated with the positive influences of socioeconomic development, the presence of democratic neighbors, and the deleterious shadow of local authoritarian legacies.