Giulia Feltrin, Valeria Ferraretto, Raffaele Guetto, Rebecca Soldo, Agnese Vitali
Abstract Italy holds one of the lowest fertility levels and the highest mean age at first birth in Europe, with previous studies pointing to a large gap between achieved and desired fertility. Nevertheless, micro-level evidence on the magnitude of the gap throughout reproductive ages and on the reasons for underachieving remains limited. In this study, we aimed at (1) quantifying the desired-realized fertility gap, i.e., the discrepancy between the desired and actual number of children, among women and men in reproductive age; (2) measuring the “fertility timing gap”, i.e., the discrepancy between the desired and actual age at first birth; (3) describing the reasons for underachieving one’s fertility desires. We used primary data collected through an online survey administered in 2025 on a representative sample (based on quotas) of 6009 heterosexual individuals aged 25–49 living in Italy. Our results showed that large proportions of men and women in reproductive age have not (yet) achieved their desired number of children. At ages 45–49, unrealized fertility corresponded to 0.8 children for men and 0.7 for women. We also found a substantial gap between the desired and actual age at first childbirth, especially among respondents who became parents after age 35. Age- and health-related factors, economic- and work-related factors, insufficient family policies, and inadequate housing conditions were the most commonly reported reasons for underachieving. Results suggest that structural interventions enhancing young people’s economic and housing security and work-family reconciliation are pivotal to enable people to achieve their fertility aspirations.