Global, regional, and national burden and future projections of pancreatitis: A Joinpoint, APC, and ARIMA modeling analysis

Pancreatitis is a serious worldwide public health concern, with a currently increasing disease burden. Up-to-date information on pancreatitis burden can provide new strategies for its screening, diagnosis, treatment, and rational allocation of resources. Based on the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2021, this study estimated the number of cases, age-standardized rates (ASRs) per 100,000 population, and risk factors of pancreatitis in 204 countries and regions. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to calculate the Average Annual Percentage Changes (AAPCs) in the incidence, mortality, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) of pancreatitis. In comparison to GBD 2017 and 2019, our analysis based on GBD 2021 reveals new epidemiological trends in pancreatitis. Eastern Europe has surpassed other regions (notably overtaking previously leading North America) and recorded the highest age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) in 2021. ASIR and ASDR in high-middle social demographic index (SDI) regions have increased compared with earlier estimates, whereas both rates showed a marked decline in high-SDI regions. In addition, males were disproportionately affected (ASIR 36.75 vs. 28.82 per 100,000), consistent with higher alcohol exposure among men. Notably, Eastern Europe has surpassed North America to become the region with the highest ASIR and ASMR of pancreatitis. Furthermore, projections for the next 15 years indicate that the incidence rate will gradually decrease in men but is expected to increase in women. Pancreatitis poses a high public health burden globally and has significant regional differences. These regional and population differences are constantly changing over time, which is essential for developing focused public health interventions and policies.