Abhishek Gupta, Harish Chandra Singh, Benerjit Wairokpam, Lamabam Aashishkumar Singh, Abhishek Kumar Dwivedy, Tikam Singh Rana, Baleshwar Meena
UNLABELLED: Genetic variability and habitat suitability of common juniper (Juniperus communis L. var. saxatilis Pall.) were investigated across seven natural populations (71 individuals) from the Western Himalayan Region (WHR), India using 22 ISSR and 11 DAMD markers coupled with ecological niche modelling. A cumulative polymorphism of 75.90% was observed across the ISSR and DAMD markers. Among the populations, KOK, BDR, and TND exhibited relatively higher genetic diversity, whereas SNM, GMK, and UDP showed comparatively lower genetic diversity. High genetic differentiation (GST = 0.35) and moderate gene flow (Nm = 0.88) were detected, while AMOVA revealed that 70% of the genetic variation occurred within populations and 30% among populations. UPGMA, PCoA and Bayesian clustering analysis identified two major genetic clusters across the sampled populations. Landscape genetics analysis supported isolation by distance as the primary driver of genetic differentiation and identified potential dispersal corridors linking populations. Ecological niche modelling under current and future climate scenarios (2060 and 2080) identified precipitation of the driest month (Bio14), elevation, isothermality (Bio3), and mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8) as the principal environmental determinants of species distribution. The current climatically suitable habitat (64,568 km²) is projected to decline under future climate scenarios, indicating an increased risk of habitat contraction. These findings provide a scientific basis for prioritizing genetically diverse populations, monitoring populations with lower genetic diversity, and protecting climatically suitable habitats of J. communis var. saxatilis in the Western Himalaya.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at https://doi.org/10.1007/s13205-026-05023-3.