An Integrative Framework for Navigating Uncertainty in Science Education

ABSTRACT Uncertainty is central to science and is increasingly recognized in science education, but the literature lacks a clear definition of the types of uncertainty and the competencies for navigating them, which vary by context. Therefore, a cross‐disciplinary integrative understanding of uncertainty is necessary to navigate complex interdisciplinary problems. In order to propose an integrative framework for understanding uncertainty in science education, we conducted a two‐stage Delphi study with science educators and disciplinary scientists ( n Round1 = 33; n Round2 = 48). In the first (qualitative) round, the experts provided written statements on their conceptions of uncertainty, rated given definitions, added missing aspects, and reported important facets of uncertainty in science education. In the second (quantitative) round, we defined the level of consensus as at least 70% agreement and evaluated the experts' responses to 58 closed‐ended survey items using a 5‐point rating scale to determine their consensus on the types of uncertainty and the competencies needed to navigate them. In Round 1, the experts largely agreed on the relevance of uncertainty in science education, but they provided nuanced critiques influenced by their disciplines. In Round 2, the experts achieved a high level of consensus on the types of uncertainty and corresponding competencies. The results informed the development of an integrated, consensus‐based framework. We discuss the findings of the Delphi study and the framework in relation to ongoing debates on uncertainty in the literature and present implications for science teaching.