The psychological mechanism of basic public service provision affecting population urbanization in China: a moderated mediation model based on migrants' settlement intention.

OBJECTIVE: The influence of social welfare and psychological factors is becoming increasingly prominent in China's people-oriented new-type urbanization. However, how macro-level public service provision translates into urbanization outcomes through psychological mechanisms remains poorly understood. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study introduces migrants' settlement intention (MSI), a psychological construct capturing expectations, social belonging, and future-oriented decisions, as a mediator between basic public service provision (BPSP) and population urbanization (PU) in China. Using panel data from 291 Chinese prefectural cities and the China Migrants Dynamic Survey (2014-2018), this study employs a moderated mediation model to examine how BPSP affects PU through MSI. RESULTS: Findings indicate that MSI partially and positively mediates the BPSP-PU relationship after overcoming the endogeneity issues, with significant and positive paths from BPSP to MSI (β = 0.368, p < 0.01) and from MSI to PU (β = 0.005, p < 0.05). Besides, housing price negatively moderates this mediation (β = -0.149, p < 0.05; β = -0.035, p < 0.05), while hukou restrictions negatively moderate the BPSP-MSI link (β = -0.296, p < 0.01) but positively moderate the MSI-PU link (β = 0.242, p < 0.01). These mediating and moderating effects remain reliable and consistent across a series of robustness checks. Heterogeneity analyses further reveal that: First, livelihood-related services not only amplify the mediating effect of MSI between BPSP and PU, but also enhance the negative moderating effect of hukou restrictions. Second, MSI shows a suppression effect on PU in Central China and has a significant positive mediating effect in Northeast China. Moreover, housing price and hukou restrictions moderate the mediation most strongly in Eastern and Western China, respectively. Third, MSI mediates the BPSP-PU link more positively and significantly in peripheral cities. Housing price moderates more negatively in central cities, and hukou restrictions moderate more strongly in peripheral cities. CONCLUSION: By identifying MSI as a forward-looking psychological conduit, this study advances a psychological account of urbanization and underscores the value of integrating urban psychology with public policy to foster sustainable, human-centered urban development.