Mapping Geopolitical Drivers of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: A Quantile‐on‐Quantile Connectedness Analysis

ABSTRACT This study investigates how geopolitical risks shape environmental sustainability by influencing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) emissions across the global economy. To provide a granular understanding of geopolitical–environmental interactions, the analysis separately examines the eight subdimensions of the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) index developed by Caldara and Iacoviello (2022), including war threats, terrorist acts, military tensions, political disputes, and nuclear risks. Using monthly data from November 2002 to March 2025, the study applies the Quantile‐on‐Quantile Connectedness (QQC) method to uncover the directional, asymmetric, and time‐varying dependencies between geopolitical risk categories and greenhouse gas emissions. The results reveal strong nonlinear connectedness patterns, indicating that CO 2 and CH 4 emissions respond differently across risk regimes and emission quantiles. Military escalations, economic tensions, and disruptions in trade‐related geopolitical channels intensify emissions particularly during high‐volatility periods, reflecting increased pressure on energy supply chains, fossil‐fuel dependency, and industrial activity. Conversely, terror‐related risks and diplomatic tensions behave predominantly as shock receivers, suggesting weaker transmission toward environmental indicators. This study provides an important analytical framework for energy and environmental policymakers, economic planners, and international institutions, helping them to anticipate environmental risks arising from geopolitical fluctuations and to design more sustainable policy strategies.